H1N1 Cases Rise-But Death Estimates Lowered in Britain

H1N1 in Britain
By Patrick Comer

According to Britain’s National Health System (NHS), cases of swine flu have risen again with an estimated 78,000 new infections in the past week, up from 53,000 the week before.

The latest official figures for England also show that the number of people needing critical care has jumped substantially, rising to 157 patients – the highest number since swine flu emerged. A further 594 needed less intensive hospital treatment in the past week.

The UK has seen 15 more deaths related to the virus, bringing the total to 137 since June: 97 in England, 25 in Scotland, eight in Northern Ireland and seven in Wales. Nearly half of the deaths have been in people with severe underlying health problems. This group is being given priority in the national vaccination program that began last week.

But the NHS also released some good news saying that estimates of deaths in the worst-case scenario for swine flu have been lowered. The government’s expert advisers on swine flu, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), said that new data from the UK, North America, Australia and elsewhere give a better picture of how the virus might spread in the autumn. SAGE cut the estimated death toll in a worst-case scenario from 65,000 people in the UK to 19,000, assuming that 30% of the population is infected.

They stress however, that these forecasts and others in the report are based on a “reasonable worst case” value and should not be taken as a prediction of how the pandemic will develop.